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NOTE Alignment review required for chapter fiscal_reforms_1

NOTE Alignment review required for chapter allocation_recap_2

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This is a United Capital research report:

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its twenty twenty-six numbers are forecasts, not

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results.

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Read it as one analyst view built

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on public information, not a guarantee.

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Global shocks travel through rates, oil and

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currencies:

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the report says higher U S rates

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tighten global liquidity, while lower twenty

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twenty-six oil prices could hurt oil exporters'

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revenues and currencies.

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The report finds growth opportunities in

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Sub-Saharan Africa and W A E M

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U, alongside risks.

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W A E M U debt and

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costly regional financing show why growth and

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risk coexist.

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Nigeria's output is mostly non-oil:

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the report puts non-oil at ninety-six point

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five six percent of quarter three twenty

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twenty-five G D P

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and oil at three point four four

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percent.

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Government revenue and foreign-exchange inflows

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still lean on oil.

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A fall in oil prices can therefore

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pressure public finances and foreign-exchange

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supply.

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The report says the proposed twenty twenty-six

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budget spends fifty-eight point one eight

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trillion naira against thirty-four point three

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three trillion naira revenue;

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subtracting gives a twenty-three point eight five

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trillion naira deficit.

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Bank recapitalisation, insurance reform and

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capital gains tax rules are expected to

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build resilience, solvency and long-term

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investing.

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The N G X A S I

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gained fifty-one point one nine percent in

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twenty twenty-five.

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Index price appreciation differs from bond

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yields, which the report says fell.

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For twenty twenty-six the report forecasts about

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thirty-one percent A S I gain, assuming

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reforms continue, and slightly lower yields.

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The report's one-year model portfolio shows

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weights totalling one hundred percent and a

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twenty-six point one percent expected return.

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Information only:

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the report says it is not an

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offer to buy or sell.